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TIME: Almanac 1990
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1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso
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1990-09-18
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NATION, Page 22Bill Me LaterOnce again, Washington chooses voodoo economics overresponsibilityBy George J. Church
October is supposed to be the month of reckoning for the
Federal Government, as a new fiscal year begins and the budget is
hammered out. In the next four weeks, Congress and the Bush
Administration must raise the federal debt ceiling to $3.1
trillion, find a way to reduce next year's deficit -- on paper at
least -- to $110 billion, and scrounge for funds to finance the
drug war, educational reform and cleanups of the HUD mess and even
of the storm-ravaged South Carolina coast.
Faced with such unpleasant responsibilities, what did
Washington do? Once again, it lost itself in a politically
irresistible orgy of tax reduction. By voting to fulfill George
Bush's campaign promise and cut capital-gains taxes, House
Republicans and renegade Democrats jumped at a short-term boost in
revenues against a long-term loss. The giveaway fractured the
foundation of the landmark 1986 tax-reform law. The drain on the
Treasury could be compounded when the measure reaches the Senate,
where it is expected to pass, and Democrats try to extend the tax
breaks on individual retirement accounts. It seemed like a classic
outbreak of "now-nowism," as Budget Director Richard Darman, who
helped broker the deal, labels the nation's hunger for immediate
gratification.
Early this year, the capital-gains cut looked like a pledge
that could not be redeemed. It was one of the few campaign issues
on which George Bush took a beating from Michael Dukakis; Bush's
congressional allies introduced legislation, but with no real hope
of passage. When the proposal began to gather surprising momentum,
Democratic leaders denounced the idea as a giveaway to Bush's rich
friends and thundered about a "defining issue" -- one on which
Democrats should hold fast to demonstrate just what the difference
is between their party and the Republicans. For Bush to prevail in
the House, even assuming total G.O.P. support, he needed no fewer
than 42 Democratic defectors.
But the vote last Thursday was not even close. The decision
came on a Democratic alternative to the capital-gains cut that
would have made tax-deductible IRAs available to more people,
balanced by a tax increase on earners of the highest incomes. That
proposal lost, 239 to 190. Bush bagged 64 Democrats, while only one
Republican, Douglas Bereuter of Nebraska, voted for the
alternative.
What happened? To House Speaker Thomas Foley, the answer was
simple: Americans love a tax cut -- any kind of tax cut -- and the
legislators reflected that feeling. Democrats contended, correctly,
that 80% of the benefits from the capital-gains slash would go to
people making more than $100,000 a year, 60% to those with incomes
over $200,000. No matter, says Foley. Tell an ordinary taxpayer
that he will reap $10 from a measure that will save the likes of
Donald Trump an average of $25,000 a year, and the taxpayer will
reply, "Fine. Give me my $10."
There were other reasons too. Bush undoubtedly swung some votes
by last-minute lobbying. Many Congressmen bought the Administration
argument that a tax cut would spur business investment, creating
more jobs and prosperity for everybody. In theory the lure of a
lightly taxed payoff will tempt investors to put up money for risky
ventures. Economists have long disputed whether that is true, but
it remains an article of faith among conservatives.
In addition, Georgia Democrat Ed Jenkins conducted two shrewd
maneuvers in drafting a successful capital-gains compromise. First,
he restored a special tax credit for the timber industry that was
abolished by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Jenkins represents a
timber-heavy district, and his move won the votes of many
legislators representing depressed lumber-producing areas. Jenkins
also held out the seemingly magic lure of a tax cut that would
increase revenue. At present, capital gains are taxed as ordinary
income, at rates up to 33%. Bush initially proposed a permanent cut
to 15%, but Jenkins substituted a reduction to an effective top
rate of 19.6%, and only for the next two years. That is expected
to increase federal revenues as much as $6.7 billion between now
and 1991, as investors rush to sell appreciated assets and pocket
the lightly taxed gains. That extra income could save Congress from
voting for the painful spending cuts or unpopular tax increases
that might otherwise be required in the next two weeks to meet the
deficit target required by the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law.
Making the tax cut temporary, however, would seem to take away
much of the investment incentive that a permanent reduction might
supply. Also, the Jenkins bill over ten years would cost an
estimated $21 billion in lost revenues; though the rate goes back
up in 1992, capital gains after that would be indexed for
inflation, as income-tax brackets and personal exemptions now are.
But who in Congress or the Administration cares about the long run?
The outcome was a heavy defeat for the new House Democratic
leadership. Ways and Means Committee chairman Dan Rostenkowski
looked particularly inept. He took a vacillating, off-again,
on-again stand and eventually lost control of his committee.
Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, also a member of Ways and Means,
failed to recognize the strength of the drive for a capital-gains
cut. Finally, but too late, he helped draft the Democratic
alternative -- which combined deductible IRA contributions for
everybody with an increase, from 28% to 33%, in the tax rate on
people with incomes over $200,000 -- and took the lead in selling
it as a matter of party philosophy. The capital-gains cut, he
declared, was "designed to keep Leona Helmsley's dream alive --
that only the little people pay taxes." Republicans retorted, in
effect, There you go again, proposing a tax increase. "Fish gotta
swim, birds gotta fly, and Democrats gotta raise taxes" was the way
one G.O.P. quip put it.
The biggest loser was the philosophy behind the Tax Reform Act,
passed only three years ago with Ronald Reagan's support. The idea
was to scrap a system of high tax rates riddled with special
breaks, and substitute a simplified system of low rates made
possible by wiping out hundreds of deductions and exemptions. That
was supposed to promote fairness -- people with similar incomes
would be taxed equally -- and make the tax code an instrument
merely for collecting revenue rather than furthering economic and
social goals. Treating capital gains the same as ordinary income
was, in the words of New Jersey Democratic Senator Bill Bradley,
a principal architect of tax reform, "the glue that holds the '86
act together."
President Bush never accepted that argument; he still believes
that the tax code should promote social and economic goals. He told
reporters last week, "I supported the tax-reform law, but in last
year's campaign there were one or two areas where I felt that we
needed to use the tax system to achieve various ends." Democratic
leaders too have lost the faith; their proposed expansion of IRAs
would also violate the no-special-breaks principle. Consequently,
Congress can expect a flood of demands from other taxpayers who
will claim that their income deserves special treatment. Writing
in the Washington Post, Senator Bradley gloomily predicted that
"the llama farmers, along with all the other dealmakers and
tax-shelter merchants who had shut up shop, will put the OPEN FOR
BUSINESS sign back in the window."
Prospects for reversing that outlook in the Senate are dim.
Finance Committee chairman Lloyd Bentsen will try to stop the
capital-gains cut by offering as an alternative broader IRAs,
without any tax increase to make up the revenue loss. Failing that,
some Democrats favor strategy to combine the capital-gains cut in
a monster tax-and-spending bill with so many provisions
unacceptable to Bush that he will be forced to veto it. That risks
triggering the automatic spending cuts mandated by Gramm-Rudman-
Hollings if there is no agreement by Oct. 16 to hold the deficit
to $110 billion in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. But those
cuts could always be rescinded later. And if the budget deficit
keeps rising? Don't think about it. The public, the President and
Congress all seem sold on now-nowism.
-- Michael Duffy and Hays Gorey/Washington